It’s no secret that a Donald Trump makes Mexico nervous. In fact, the Bank of Mexico held an emergency meeting on Wednesday in order to discuss the peso crashing more than 13% to a record low in the wake of Trump’s electoral victory.
While the central bank opted to keep policy on hold as the peso recouped some of its losses, Capital Economics Latin America Economist Adam Collins says his firm has penciled in a half point hike in interest rates to 5.25% at next week’s meeting. That is of course as long as the peso doesn’t come under renewed pressure.
And if the reaction in the rest of Mexico’s markets are any indication, next week’s Bank of Mexico meeting could have an even greater importance.
Mexico’s stock market, the IPC, opened to a loss of more than 4% on Wednesday. And while the IPC has recovered a good portion of its losses, currently down about 2%, the volatility in the market is evidence of the nervousness surrounding a Trump presidency.
Wednesday's selling isn't just limited to Mexico's stock market. The country's bond market has come under significant pressure with yields across the curve up as much as 46 basis points. In fact, the 10-year yield hit its highest level since February 2014.
And finally, the cost of insuring against a Mexico default within the next five years spiked 11.7% to 161.71 bps. Wednesday's action shows traders see a Trump presidency as creating some uncertainty regarding the future of the country's economy and ability to pay its debts.
